Beyond the Horizon: Preparing for Future Black Swan Events
No one alive today has ever seen a supervolcano erupt. The most recent super eruption was of New Zealand's Taupō volcano, which occurred around 26,500 years ago. The 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines is one of the largest eruptions in living memory. (1)
Is Another Black Swan Event Around the Corner?
We've recently heard the term "black swan event" thrown around more frequently by numerous voices across the internet and in the media. Two recent mentions were from former Texas representative Ron Paul and retired U.S. General Flynn. Ron Paul stated, "We're reaching this point where some sudden thing is going to happen; I believe in that theory of the black swan." General Flynn said, "black swan events are things that nobody imagined could occur, and yet they did, and then they have these incredibly, mostly devastating effects."
What is a Black Swan Event?
A black swan event is a highly impactful occurrence that is difficult to predict beforehand but seems inevitable in hindsight. The term originates from the belief that black swans didn't exist because all known swans were white until they were discovered in Australia in the late 17th century. This event highlighted the idea that just because something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't. Nassim Nicholas Taleb outlines three key characteristics of black swan events:
Outlier Status: Black swan events are so rare that they often go unrecognized or unaccounted for in predictive models or risk assessments. They are outliers in the data, making them difficult to anticipate.
Extreme Impact: When a black swan event does occur, its consequences are usually profound and far-reaching. These events have the potential to disrupt economies, societies, and even global systems.
Retrospective Rationalization: Despite their outlier status, people tend to create explanations or narratives for black swan events after they happen. This hindsight bias can lead to the mistaken belief that the event was predictable or that signs of it were evident beforehand.
Historical Examples of Black Swan Events
Here are five historical examples of black swan events:
Mount Tambora Eruption (1815): The eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in April 1815 was the most powerful volcanic eruption in recorded history. It caused a year without a summer in 1816, leading to crop failures, famine, and social unrest in various parts of the world. The magnitude and global impact of the eruption were unforeseen.
The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake: The earthquake that struck San Francisco on April 18, 1906, remains one of American history's most devastating natural disasters. The quake, estimated to have a magnitude of 7.9, caused widespread destruction, fires, and loss of life. The severity of the earthquake and its impact on a major American city were unexpected.
The September 11 Attacks (2001): The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, stunned the world and had profound implications for global politics, security, and civil liberties. The scale and unexpected nature of the attacks made them a classic example of a black swan event.
The Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008): The collapse of major financial institutions and the subsequent credit crunch in 2007-2008 triggered a worldwide economic recession, often called the Global Financial Crisis. The complex interplay of financial instruments, regulatory failures, and excessive risk-taking led to a systemic crisis largely unforeseen by mainstream economists and policymakers.
The COVID-19 Pandemic (2019-2020s): The emergence of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its rapid spread worldwide, resulting in the COVID-19 pandemic, is a prime example of a black swan event. The pandemic severely impacted global economies, overburdened healthcare systems, and caused significant loss of life, much of which can be attributed to mismanagement of interventions at the onset. This crisis exposed modern societies' vulnerability to unexpected biological threats and raised concerns about governments engaging in gain-of-function research.
What Will be the Next Black Swan Event?
While no one can predict the next black swan event or when it will happen, remaining vigilant and proactive in preparing for potential risks is essential. Here are five future black swan events that we acknowledge as possible and for which we are actively taking steps to prepare:
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2023 Annual Threat Assessment states that Iran remains a major cyber threat: “Iran's growing expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a major threat to the security of U.S. and allied networks and data. (2)
Major Cyber Attack: A sophisticated cyber-attack targeting critical infrastructure or key sectors such as finance, healthcare, or utilities could disrupt essential services and lead to widespread chaos, highlighting vulnerabilities in our increasingly digital-dependent world.
Nuclear War: Escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts, particularly involving nuclear powers, raise concerns about the possibility of a catastrophic nuclear exchange. The consequences of such an event would be unimaginable, underscoring the need for diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation and promote peace.
Economic Collapse: Economic instability stemming from unsustainable government spending, corporate greed, or global financial crises could trigger a severe economic downturn with far-reaching consequences, emphasizing the fragility of our interconnected global economy.
Natural Disaster: Superstorms of the scale of Katrina, with unprecedented intensity and destructive power, pose a significant threat to our communities. This category would also include more significant events like solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. Everyone is waiting for "the big one."
Deadly Pandemic: The emergence of a highly lethal pandemic caused by a natural or engineered pathogen, with a mortality rate of 50% or greater, could lead to mass casualties, social disruption, and economic turmoil on a global scale.
The possibility of future black swan events underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks, enhance resilience, and strengthen our communities.
What can you do to Prepare?
The solution lies within the question itself: prepare. Being ready for emerging threats to our security, well-being, and prosperity is crucial.
Living in fear of these events is unnecessary, as individuals often have limited power to prevent them. However, we can take proactive steps to enhance our resilience and that of our community and nation. Begin by prioritizing your health, then focus on material preparations. For guidance on getting started and determining priorities, check out our comprehensive guide, Prepping 101.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and how we prepare today will determine our success in future challenges.
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